$100 Diesel Cracks Signal a Much Tighter Oil Market Than Brent Suggests

Source Summary

Despite crude oil futures rarely exceeding $100 per barrel over six months marked by severe global supply disruptions, the diesel market has tightened significantly. Tanker traffic at the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to a fraction of pre-war levels, yet market participants have remained complacent, betting on conflict resolution rather than recognizing the shrinking diesel supply that signals underlying market tightness.