Global Refining Shortage Expected to Support Elevated Fuel Prices Through 2027
Source Summary
Damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia, combined with insufficient replacement capacity globally, are expected to keep fuel prices elevated into 2027. Middle East regional conflict and Iranian and Houthi strikes on Persian Gulf facilities have reduced supply, while Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have prompted a Russian diesel export ban. Global fuel markets are tightening as alternative refining capacity elsewhere remains inadequate to offset these disruptions.
Why it matters
Sustained refining constraints directly support higher fuel prices globally, affecting energy costs for consumers and businesses through 2027.
