Hormuz Oil Flows Unlikely to Return to Pre-War Levels, Rystad Says
Source Summary
Rystad Energy forecasts that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will continue to recover gradually but remain below pre-war levels, even if the United States and Iran reach a limited agreement by mid-2027. A comprehensive settlement would require resolving disputes over Iran's nuclear program, sanctions, Tehran-backed armed groups, and maritime shipping security, but fundamental differences are expected to persist.
Why it matters
Global oil supply and pricing depend significantly on Hormuz flows, making forecasts of sustained below-normal throughput material to energy markets and geopolitical risk assessment.
What remains uncertain
The timing and terms of any U.S.-Iran agreement remain uncertain, as do the extent and duration of below-normal oil flows.
